The NCC spearheaded a letter to House and Senate leaders calling for a new farm bill with enhanced safety net provisions for producers.
The letter at https://bit.ly/3XjuOyq, which was signed by over 300 organizations representing commodities, lenders, and other rural interests, points out that the current Title I safety net has not kept pace with inflation. It also notes many other challenges in farm country, including USDA statistics forecasting a $42.5 billion trade deficit this year and agriculture sector debt of $540.8 billion, the highest inflation-adjusted level since at least 1970.
The letter urges Congress to “act before year’s end to strengthen farm policy for America’s farmers.” A lack of meaningful enhancements to the safety net and crop insurance, the letter concludes, “would leave thousands of family farms with no options to continue producing for this nation in 2025 and beyond.”
In conjunction with the letter, the NCC organized multiple commodity groups and lenders in visits to nearly 100 House and Senate offices, including key Congressional Leadership offices in both Chambers. The groups included American Soybean Association, USA Rice Federation, National Corn Growers Association, U.S. Peanut Federation, National Sorghum Producers, National Association of Wheat Growers, American Bankers Association, and the Farm Credit Council. Many participants noted that this was the first multi-commodity advocacy campaign in memory and gave momentum to the process. In addition to these visits, several state and regional cotton groups also made separate visits on Capitol Hill seeing over sixty offices. All groups expressed the need for Congress to act and gave an opportunity for lawmakers to hear directly from farmers what they are facing and the likely consequences of inaction.
USDA Estimating 14.51 Million Bales U.S. Crop
In its September crop report, USDA estimated a 2024-25 U.S. crop of 14.51 million bales. Upland production was estimated at 13.97 million bales and ELS production at 547,000 bales. Harvested area was an estimated 8.63 million acres, implying a non-harvested area of 2.54 million acres. The resulting abandonment rate is 22.73%. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 807 pounds, 56 pounds lower than the 5-year average.
On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.20 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.28 million and a regional average yield of 884 pounds, 40 pounds below the 5-year average for the region. All states in the region are expected to see lower yields when compared to their 5-year average. Virginia, South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to see the largest decline in yields when compared to their 5-year average with yields estimated to reach 960 pounds (-102 pounds), 829 pounds (-57 pounds) and 906 pounds (-56 pounds), respectively. Yields in Florida, Georgia and Alabama are also expected to see lower yields with estimates of 657 pounds (-43 pounds), 903 pounds (-39 pounds) and 869 pounds (-14 pounds) per harvested acre.
In the Mid-South, expected production is 4.74 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 1.94 million acres and the expected yield is 1,176 pounds per harvested acre. Most states in the region are expected to see an increase in yield when compared to their 5-year average. The largest gains in yield when compared to the 5-year average are expected to be seen in Louisiana with yields estimated at 1,056 pounds per harvested acre (+83 pounds), Mississippi with yields estimated at 1,118 pounds per harvested acre (+42 pounds) and Arkansas with yields estimated at 1,238 pounds per harvested acre (+22 pounds). Yields in Missouri are expected to decline when compared to their 5-year average to 1,238 pounds (-3 pounds) per harvested acre.
The Southwest upland crop is estimated at 4.63 million bales. Expected harvested area is 4.09 million acres and the regional yield is 544 pounds, 116 pounds lower than their 5-year average of 660 pounds per harvested acre. The Texas upland crop is estimated at 4.10 million bales. Expected harvested area is 3.65 million acres and the average yield is 539 pounds (-112 pounds). With expected yields of 720 pounds (-65 pounds), Kansas is down in terms of yield when compared to their 5-year average. Oklahoma is down in terms of yield with an estimated 533 pounds per harvested acre (-169 pounds).
Upland production in the West is an estimated 400,000 bales with an estimated harvested area of 144,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,337 pounds, 30 pounds higher than the region’s 5-year average. The greatest increase in yield is expected for California, up 174 pounds to an estimated 2,000 pounds per harvested acre.
The ELS crop is an estimated 547,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 192,000 acres with an average yield of 1,368 pounds per harvested acre.
U.S. Supply & Offtake
In its September report, USDA projected the 2024-25 U.S. crop at 14.51 million bales, down 600,000 bales from the August report. U.S. exports were lowered 200,000 bales to 11.80 million bales. Mill use was unchanged from the August report at 1.90 million bales. This generates a total 2024-25 offtake of 13.70 million bales. Ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected at 4.00 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 29.2%.
For the 2023-24 crop year, USDA gauged U.S. cotton production at 12.07 million bales. Estimated mill use and exports were unchanged from the August report at 1.85 million and 11.75 million bales, respectively. Total offtake for the 2023-24 crop year is estimated at 13.60 million bales. Based on revised data and methodologies, beginning stocks and unaccounted were reduced by 400,000 bales for the 2023-24 marketing year (More information can be found in this month’s edition of the Foreign Agricultural Services Cotton: World Markets and Trade). Ending stocks for 2023-24 are 3.15 million bales. The estimated stocks-to-use ratio for the 2023-24 marketing year is 23.2%.
World Supply & Offtake
In USDA’s September report, 2024-25 world production is projected to be 116.42 million bales, down 1.22 million bales from last month. Mill use is projected at 115.75 million bales, down 460,000 bales from last month. With beginning stocks at 75.61 million bales, this would result in world ending stocks of 76.49 million bales on July 31, 2025, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 66.1%.
World production for the 2023-24 marketing year was estimated to be 113.57 million bales, down 10,000 bales from last month. World mill use was raised 800,000 bales to 113.15 million bales. Consequentially, world ending stocks are estimated to be 75.61 million bales with a stocks-to-use ratio of 66.8%.
NCC Applauds NO IRIS Act
The National Cotton Council joined over 50 stakeholders on a letter at https://bit.ly/4d3JHuv thanking Senator John Kennedy and Congressman Glenn Grothman for introducing the “No Industrial Restrictions In Secret (NO IRIS) Act of 2024” (S. 3724/H.R. 7284). The purpose of the act is to stop the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System program's (IRIS) non-transparent work from being used to justify overly burdensome regulations on critical chemistries essential for products we use every day. The IRIS program doesn't use the same 'weight of evidence' approach to science used in the rest of the EPA and often fails to review the latest scientific papers. Their work has been used to justify bans of several prominent chemicals using lower-than-naturally-occurring levels as well as being used to shutter facilities.
Export Sales for Week Ending September 5
Net export sales for the week ending September 5, 2024 were 130,500 bales (480-lb.). This brings total ‘24-25 sales to approximately 5.0 million. Total sales at the same point in the ‘23-24 marketing year were approximately 5.6 million bales. Total new crop (‘25-26) sales are 358,300 bales (480-lb.). Shipments for the week were 130,400 bales, bringing total exports to date to 812,800 bales, compared with the 1.1 million bales at the comparable point in the ‘23-24 marketing year.
Capitol Calendar
This Week
The House and Senate convened.
September 10
The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee’s Rural Development and Energy Subcommittee held a hearing, “The State of Rural Infrastructure: Emergency Response, Recovery, and Resilience.” More information and a link to view the hearing are at https://bit.ly/3Tt0joB.
September 11
The House Agriculture Committee’s Nutrition, Foreign Agriculture, and Horticulture Subcommittee, along with the House Appropriations Committee’s Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee, held a hearing, “Severe Food Distribution Shortages in Tribal and Elderly Communities.” More information and a link to view the hearing are at https://bit.ly/3B1X4ya.
Next Week
September 16
The Senate convenes.
September 17
The House convenes.
September 18
The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee’s Food and Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics, and Research Subcommittee will hold a hearing, “Keeping Kids Learning in the National School Lunch Program and School Breakfast Program.” More information and a link to view the hearing are at https://bit.ly/4eluExj.
